Economic Anxiety and Political Tension Shape the Jewish Vote
Canadian Jews are heading into the April 2025 federal election with more on their minds than party slogans or familiar faces. Talk to voters in Toronto’s Eglinton-Lawrence or Montreal’s Mount Royal, and you’ll hear three themes on repeat: the shaky economy, Ottawa’s stance on Israel policy, and the stubborn rise of antisemitism.
2024 was a rough year on all fronts. Cross-border trade used to be predictable, but Donald Trump’s return to the national stage has upended Canada-U.S. relations. Debates over tariffs, sudden hits to export jobs, and Trump tossing off comments about Canada “becoming the 51st state” have everyone on edge — especially families whose jobs depend on stable markets. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s public squabbles with Trump have only made things messier, feeding an atmosphere of uncertainty that many voters, Jewish or not, find exhausting.
Antisemitism On the Rise — and on the Ballot
Jewish voters aren’t just worrying about the dollar. They’re dealing with a real spike in hate — something that can’t be spun as political posturing. B’nai Brith Canada counted more than 6,200 antisemitic incidents in 2024, up nearly 8% from the year before. Broken synagogue windows, online harassment, and students reporting threats have made safety a genuine concern. In places like Toronto–St. Paul’s, families mention things like synagogue security and their kids’ schools nearly as often as the price of groceries or mortgage rates.
Where each party stands on fighting antisemitism or backing Israel isn’t an abstract issue here. After the October 7 attack in Israel, Canada’s response split along party lines. Liberals under Carney tried to walk a fine line, condemning the violence but also promoting dialogue with Palestinian leaders. This has landed them in hot water with some Jewish voters, who say the Liberals have drifted from Israel’s side. Conservatives have seized on this, hammering away in ridings with big Jewish communities and promising to take a tougher line with Israel’s security. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has made repeated stops in Jewish neighborhoods, making promises that feel specifically tailored — and not just talking points borrowed from national debates.
It wasn’t always so close. Polls last year showed Poilievre’s Conservatives with a double-digit lead, but the numbers shifted fast after Carney took over the Liberal leadership. Now, even longstanding Liberal ridings, like Mount Royal, are seeing tight races. Conservative candidates are betting that strong support for Israel and a tough-on-crime message will give them a critical edge, while the Liberals are leaning on their record and hoping concerns over economic stability will work in their favor.
This election isn’t just about which leader clicks better on TV or who shakes the most hands at the Passover dinner table. For a lot of Jewish voters, it’s the first time in years that global headlines — a U.S. president’s trade feud, a spike in hate crimes, and the lasting fallout from Middle East violence — feel like they’re all crashing together, right on their doorstep. The outcome is up in the air, and no one’s taking anything for granted. The April 28 vote will show just how much these issues matter, not just for Jewish Canadians, but for the whole country’s political future.
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