Category 4 Hurricane Melissa Threatens Jamaica as Storm Intensifies

When Hurricane Melissathe Caribbean Sea slammed into headlines this week, the image that stuck in most people's minds was a satellite swirl packed with 140 mph winds and a barometric pressure of 958 mb – classic signs of a Category 4 behemoth. The storm, now barreling westward at just 4 knots, sits roughly 165 miles southeast of Jamaica and is expected to brush its southern coast by the morning of October 28, 2025.

Rapid Intensification Explained

The National Hurricane Center, based in Miami, Florida, has been tracking Melissa since a weak tropical disturbance was first logged on October 20 at 09:30 ET. According to National Hurricane Center director Dr. Michael Brennan, "the combination of decreasing vertical wind shear and sea‑surface temperatures above 30 °C created a perfect incubator for rapid intensification."

Fox Weather’s veteran hurricane analyst Bryan Norcross echoed that sentiment on October 20, noting that the odds of the system evolving into a major hurricane were "now in the high range". By October 25, CBS12 in West Palm Beach reported a 50‑knot jump in sustained winds within a 24‑hour window – a textbook case of extreme rapid intensification.

Human Toll and Immediate Impacts

While Melissa is still over water, its outer bands have already unleashed deadly flash floods across southern Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Four lives were lost in Haiti: two in a landslide near Port‑au‑Prince, one from a fallen tree in Marigot, and another from a collapsing wall in Artibonite. Around 15 people suffered injuries, and roughly 450 homes were reported damaged, according to the latest humanitarian briefings.

Jamaica, meanwhile, is bracing for what officials describe as "catastrophic flash flooding, extensive wind damage, and life‑threatening storm surge." The Ministry of Transport has deployed thirty buses to ferry residents from high‑risk neighborhoods like Portmore, Spanish Town, Rockfort, and Montego Bay. Simultaneously, the National Water Commission is positioning mobile water‑purification units to serve an estimated 548,000 customers once power is restored.

Preparedness Measures Across the Caribbean

• Airport closures: All Jamaican airports shut down as of October 25, halting both domestic and international flights.
• University evacuations: The University of the West Indies ordered its Mona campus to clear out students and staff.
• Sandbag distribution: The Cayman Islands government handed out sandbags to vulnerable coastal households.
• Airline flexibility: Cayman Airways waived change‑of‑flight fees for passengers affected by Melissa.
• U.S. Navy evacuation: Several hundred non‑mission‑essential U.S. citizens were airlifted from Guantanamo Bay Naval Base to Florida.
• Cuban evacuations: Guantánamo Province authorities moved 145,000 people inland.

Tour operators on Little Cayman and Cayman Brac have already called off diving excursions, and the Ministry of Health across the region is stockpiling medical supplies in anticipation of injuries from debris and water‑borne illnesses.

Projected Path and Potential Fallout

The latest NHC advisory shows Melissa curving northward after skirting Jamaica’s southern shoreline, then taking a meandering track across southeastern Cuba on October 29‑30. By October 30, the storm is set to cross the southeastern Bahamas, with a possible brush with Bermuda on Halloween, October 31. While the NHC still flags a low‑probability chance of Category 5 strength – winds exceeding 157 mph – the consensus among forecasters is that the storm will retain at least Category 4 intensity through its Jamaican landfall.

If the forecast holds, power outages could linger for weeks. Jamaica’s electricity grid, already strained from past tropical storms, may experience “wide‑scale, long‑duration blackouts,” according to a statement from the Jamaica Public Service Company. Moreover, the heavy rains are projected to dump more than 12 inches of precipitation across the island’s southern half, raising the specter of landslides in the Blue Mountains foothills.

Historical Context and What Might Change

Melissa marks the fifth named storm of the 2025 Atlantic season, which has been unusually active for a late‑October stretch. Historically, only a handful of major hurricanes have made direct landfall on Jamaica during October; the last was Hurricane Charley in 2004, which skirted the island as a Category 2 system. Should Melissa maintain Category 4 strength, it would become the first recorded major hurricane to strike Jamaica in the week leading up to Halloween.

Experts warn that climate‑driven sea‑surface warming is extending the window for intense storms further into the calendar year. Dr. Brennan noted that “the thermal reservoir in the Caribbean is now consistently above the threshold that fuels rapid intensification, and we’re seeing that reflected in storms like Melissa.” The implication is clear: future October hurricanes could become the new norm, reshaping preparedness protocols across the Caribbean.

What Comes Next?

Residents are urged to stay tuned to local radio and the NHC’s official updates. Emergency shelters in Saint Andrew and Saint James are already stocked, and the Red Cross is coordinating distribution of food and clean water. The next NHC advisory is scheduled for 10:00 a.m. ET on October 27, which will refine the projected landfall corridor and timing.

In the meantime, the Caribbean’s tourism sector is bracing for a dip in visitor numbers, as airlines re‑route flights and hotels grapple with cancellations. Yet, for those on the ground, the focus remains on safeguarding lives and property before the storm finally moves on.